Greetings everyone, and welcome to the first issue of what will hopefully become a regular monthly update about the realm's overall situation of players and bugs.
In fact, although TwinHead and the bugtracker provide a huge lot of information, and third-party sites like Kronos-census.com and Kronos-logs.com do nicely their job, nothing was there that would keep track of how the realm population and content actually evolve through time... until now, when I decided I might take care of that myself, and share what I gathered over the previous months since Kronos launched.
More specifically, Kronos-census.com only shows population data over a 3-day span, whereas the bugtracker has no built-in history whatsoever. Being able to see the larger picture is as informative, I believe, and an unvaluable tool to help foresee where Kronos is going, and plan out possible strategies if needed. From now on, we won't have to guess at numbers anymore, and this is exactly where this thread comes into place: to complete those services where they're currently lacking. I kept things as simple as possible, as I'm sure most of you can't be bothered with walls of text and numbers too much, and just want to be able to see what's happening at a quick glance; hence why I'll use graphs and simple tables to submit my data in a user-friendly fashion.
Not only that, though: I'm also explaining how data are handled and what every figure means. Enjoy!
Daily peaks (November) and - hear ye hear ye - Population History!
The following image shows everyday's peak population over the past month (November).
NOTE: "Peak" is meant as the most characters found online at the same time - as detected by hourly censuses on Kronos-census.com - regardless of faction (it's not the total of the two distinct faction peaks, which could happen at different times of day).
The following graph shows the trend of monthly average peaks since Kronos launch (28.3.2015).
X-axis: time progression (months); y-axis: online characters.
DISCLAIMER: Kronos-census.com was started on 10 May 2015. The source for the first weeks before then is my own personal data, that is faction censuses - taken through an enhanced version of the Census+ addon - occasionally recorded within our guild's journal (so data weren't collected on a regular basis as they are now). Thus, while not 100% accurate, the graph curve is still mostly true to real numbers as missing intervals are extrapolated from actual values.
As you can clearly see here, a quick drop during the first few months has been followed by a slower decrease which started in summer. Population seem to be still slightly decreasing, anyway the drop over November appears worse than October's mainly because only weekend peaks were being recorded then. Starting on the next update, we should have a definitely clearer picture. All in all however, yeah, it looks like we're still bleeding players... although more slowly than before.
Quality Improvement & Bugfixing
This is supposed to provide a simpler yet more accurate overview than the graphs appearing at the bottom of the Kronos bugtracker. More accurate since all issues marked as Won't Fix, Duplicate, Not a Bug and Canceled are left out: being that they only end up altering final percentages while not being really relevant, they can be safely disregarded.
Bottom line: population is decreasing very slowly, yet the same applies to bugs.
Thanks for reading, see you on the next update!
In fact, although TwinHead and the bugtracker provide a huge lot of information, and third-party sites like Kronos-census.com and Kronos-logs.com do nicely their job, nothing was there that would keep track of how the realm population and content actually evolve through time... until now, when I decided I might take care of that myself, and share what I gathered over the previous months since Kronos launched.
More specifically, Kronos-census.com only shows population data over a 3-day span, whereas the bugtracker has no built-in history whatsoever. Being able to see the larger picture is as informative, I believe, and an unvaluable tool to help foresee where Kronos is going, and plan out possible strategies if needed. From now on, we won't have to guess at numbers anymore, and this is exactly where this thread comes into place: to complete those services where they're currently lacking. I kept things as simple as possible, as I'm sure most of you can't be bothered with walls of text and numbers too much, and just want to be able to see what's happening at a quick glance; hence why I'll use graphs and simple tables to submit my data in a user-friendly fashion.
Not only that, though: I'm also explaining how data are handled and what every figure means. Enjoy!
Daily peaks (November) and - hear ye hear ye - Population History!
The following image shows everyday's peak population over the past month (November).
NOTE: "Peak" is meant as the most characters found online at the same time - as detected by hourly censuses on Kronos-census.com - regardless of faction (it's not the total of the two distinct faction peaks, which could happen at different times of day).
Figures appear by five columns (left to right): date, week day, Alliance population on realm's daily peak, Horde population on realm's daily peak, daily peak (the two previous values added together).
The number in the bottom yellow cell (751) is the monthly average peak, i.e. all daily peaks for the month added together and the total divided by 30. This will be taken as a reference for the next month to determine how peak population shift, being also used to draw the graph seen in the next spoiler.
The number in the bottom yellow cell (751) is the monthly average peak, i.e. all daily peaks for the month added together and the total divided by 30. This will be taken as a reference for the next month to determine how peak population shift, being also used to draw the graph seen in the next spoiler.
The following graph shows the trend of monthly average peaks since Kronos launch (28.3.2015).
X-axis: time progression (months); y-axis: online characters.
DISCLAIMER: Kronos-census.com was started on 10 May 2015. The source for the first weeks before then is my own personal data, that is faction censuses - taken through an enhanced version of the Census+ addon - occasionally recorded within our guild's journal (so data weren't collected on a regular basis as they are now). Thus, while not 100% accurate, the graph curve is still mostly true to real numbers as missing intervals are extrapolated from actual values.
As you can clearly see here, a quick drop during the first few months has been followed by a slower decrease which started in summer. Population seem to be still slightly decreasing, anyway the drop over November appears worse than October's mainly because only weekend peaks were being recorded then. Starting on the next update, we should have a definitely clearer picture. All in all however, yeah, it looks like we're still bleeding players... although more slowly than before.
Quality Improvement & Bugfixing
This is supposed to provide a simpler yet more accurate overview than the graphs appearing at the bottom of the Kronos bugtracker. More accurate since all issues marked as Won't Fix, Duplicate, Not a Bug and Canceled are left out: being that they only end up altering final percentages while not being really relevant, they can be safely disregarded.
On the left side you can see a table where each column is meant to show a snapshot of the issue situation as seen on the first day of that month. As of now, only two snapshots appear: the very first one dating back to the 1st of May 2015 (which I took for this thread of mine), and the one from yesterday (4.12.2015). The snapshot from May is especially useful as Kronos was only a month old then, letting us have a good enough glimpse into what progress has been made over these months when we compare its values to the latest breakdown.
Conveniently, all issues are grouped under three categories:
PENDING - Issues the status of which needs to be defined. Bugs waiting to be confirmed as such (New), issues that were fixed before and have probably resurfaced (Request Reopen), bugs with fixes applied needing a final check to confirm they're sorted out (Need Retest).
ACTIVE - Content that is actually bugged and is being/will be worked on. A fixed thing that unfixed itself (Reopened, yeah that happens too), features that have been verified to be bugged (Confirmed), issues that require further detail to be provided by players (Need Info), things that have been rewritten and require a database update - and eventually a realm restart - before they can be tested again (Need Update).
FIXED - Features that were bugged and are now working as they should.
Finally, the most important part of the table:
TOTAL - The overall amount of reports submitted. It adds together the numbers from the aforesaid three categories (Pending, Active and Fixed).
FIX RATIO - The percentage showing the ratio of Fixed issues on the Total reported. An active bugfixing would see this value remain constant or, better yet, increase over time. This is the case we have here!
OUTPUT - The most significant value, displaying the monthly rate variation of the Fix Ratio (this time it pertains the change over the whole May-November span). The closer this percentage to 0, the better: that means bugs are being fixed at the same rate they're being reported. For Kronos it's even slightly higher than that, which is amazing.
Lastly, the graph on the right gives a visual indication of actual issue distribution, updated to the first day of the current month.
Conveniently, all issues are grouped under three categories:
PENDING - Issues the status of which needs to be defined. Bugs waiting to be confirmed as such (New), issues that were fixed before and have probably resurfaced (Request Reopen), bugs with fixes applied needing a final check to confirm they're sorted out (Need Retest).
ACTIVE - Content that is actually bugged and is being/will be worked on. A fixed thing that unfixed itself (Reopened, yeah that happens too), features that have been verified to be bugged (Confirmed), issues that require further detail to be provided by players (Need Info), things that have been rewritten and require a database update - and eventually a realm restart - before they can be tested again (Need Update).
FIXED - Features that were bugged and are now working as they should.
Finally, the most important part of the table:
TOTAL - The overall amount of reports submitted. It adds together the numbers from the aforesaid three categories (Pending, Active and Fixed).
FIX RATIO - The percentage showing the ratio of Fixed issues on the Total reported. An active bugfixing would see this value remain constant or, better yet, increase over time. This is the case we have here!
OUTPUT - The most significant value, displaying the monthly rate variation of the Fix Ratio (this time it pertains the change over the whole May-November span). The closer this percentage to 0, the better: that means bugs are being fixed at the same rate they're being reported. For Kronos it's even slightly higher than that, which is amazing.
Lastly, the graph on the right gives a visual indication of actual issue distribution, updated to the first day of the current month.
Bottom line: population is decreasing very slowly, yet the same applies to bugs.
Thanks for reading, see you on the next update!
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