tekai
Authorized
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2015
- Location
- Switzerland
I've been pondering about the Kronos population for a long time. It is important to have enough players to sustain regular in-game activities and players regularly talk about it and discuss ways to increase the population. Few would like to join a server where the population is getting lower and lower. If such was the case, some action would be required to happen to prevent the decay from continuing. And if the population is growing it is interesting to look at why this happens and how to stimulate it further.
I decided to gather some data from the Kronos Census http://www.kronos-census.com/ to find out more about it and have an opinion based on numbers, not only feelings that there are more or less players online. The data could help pinpoint areas where help could be needed (ex : if we notice most players don't make it past level 10 we could question if helping them at this very point would make them stay).
An active character is defined as a character that logged on during a census in the last 8 weeks.
Reminder : The census is NOT affiliated with Kronos. Nevertheless it's the best data I can have.
Reminder 2 : It's not because there's a difference that it is significant, some natural variability always occurs.
Results
[Google doc : All documents]
[Google doc : Amount of characters per level over time]
[Google doc : Amount of characters online in the last 7 days over time]
[Google doc : Random sample of level 60 players online in the last 7 days that have raided]
[Google doc : Poll about raiders and PvP, barriers to doing PvP] * [Presentation of results]
From the 14th october to the 29th october 2015 (roughly 2 weeks difference) 2475 new characters (53826-51081) where made. 1399 (57%, 24714-26113) didn't make it past level 9. An additional 215 (3188-2973) characters made it to level 60. Around 48% of the population was level 1-9 on the 14th (24714/51081) and 48% on the 29th (26113/53826).
On the 14th october query 1338 level 60 characters had been inactive for 2 weeks, (45% of all level 60 players, 1338/2973),1075 had been inactive for 4 weeks (36% of all level 60 characters, 1075/2973) and 751 had been inactive for 8 weeks (25% of all level 60 characters, 751/2973).
On the 29th october query 1467 level 60 characters had been inactive for 2 weeks, (46% of all level 60 players, 1467/3188), 1239 had been inactive for 4 weeks (39% of all level 60 characters, 1239/3188) and 871 had been inactive for 8 weeks (27% of all level 60 characters, 871/3188).
Thus 73-75% of all level 60 characters have been active in the last 8 weeks.
Of all players that make it past level 9 (~27500), ~13000 (47%) make it to level 10-19, ~6000 (22%) make it to level 20-29, ~3100 (11%) make it to level 30-39, ~1800 (7%) make it to level 40-49, ~1080 (4%) make it to level 50-59 and ~3050 (11%) make it to level 60.
Analysis
During those 2 weeks 129 additional level 60 characters (1467-1338) didn't log during the census and 215 characters made it to level 60, resulting in an overall increase of 86 active level 60 characters (215-129). The active level 60 characters population thus seems increasing at a faster rate than it gets inactive.
While 25% of level 60 characters hadn't logged on during the last 8 weeks on the 14th, this number increased to 27% when the same query was made on the 29th. Thus more level 60 characters proportional to total level 60 characters seem to be getting inactive as time goes on. This difference may turn out to not be significant on a longer period of time.
Limitations
The census is not supported by Kronos, it sometimes fails to gather data about a faction for some hours. But there's no reason to believe it fails more on one faction or another, besides it has more data-points than most players using a census addon would have and on both factions.
I don't have data on other servers for comparison purposes, but I'd be most interested in it. This is mostly short-term data for the time being.
Discussion
Most characters that make it to level 60 stay active on the server (73-75%). This could mean that high-level characters are highly satisfied with the server, the possibilities in terms of activities, have stuff to do, can do stuff and have fun. It could also be explained by the risk of losing all progress made if going to a different server, of losing their communities and friends, by the time and ressources spent on their characters and by the perception of a lack of other good server options.
It is possible that players don't play less at level 60, but instead focus on different characters (alts), leading to lower active players. Maybe the last 25% represent players that finished the usual PvE content (MC, BWL, Onyxia) or met their personal goals (level 60, class-quest, etc). Activity could be lower than usual because of holidays or special days, but the mixed populations make this unlikely. It may be that 2-4 weeks is too short to notice a significant difference in level 60 players because leveling to 60 takes longer for most people.
89% of all characters higher than level 9 haven't made it to level 60. This means the average character is not level 60. Leveling to 60 remains a time-consuming process that most players do not achieve. Perhaps they encounter bugs, or didn't realise the time it would take to level, or levels 1-9 are unatractive, or other servers give them easier leveling options (ex : free 60), or they spend too long on a class they don't like before they get enough abilities to have fun. While level 60 characters are only a minority of the population (11%) they make up 23% of the active population in the last 7 days (1549/6691).
[16.11.2015] Added active population on the last 7 days for 3 consecutive weeks.
[22.11.2015] Added Raiders and barriers to PvP poll
I decided to gather some data from the Kronos Census http://www.kronos-census.com/ to find out more about it and have an opinion based on numbers, not only feelings that there are more or less players online. The data could help pinpoint areas where help could be needed (ex : if we notice most players don't make it past level 10 we could question if helping them at this very point would make them stay).
An active character is defined as a character that logged on during a census in the last 8 weeks.
Reminder : The census is NOT affiliated with Kronos. Nevertheless it's the best data I can have.
Reminder 2 : It's not because there's a difference that it is significant, some natural variability always occurs.
Results
[Google doc : All documents]
[Google doc : Amount of characters per level over time]
[Google doc : Amount of characters online in the last 7 days over time]
[Google doc : Random sample of level 60 players online in the last 7 days that have raided]
[Google doc : Poll about raiders and PvP, barriers to doing PvP] * [Presentation of results]
From the 14th october to the 29th october 2015 (roughly 2 weeks difference) 2475 new characters (53826-51081) where made. 1399 (57%, 24714-26113) didn't make it past level 9. An additional 215 (3188-2973) characters made it to level 60. Around 48% of the population was level 1-9 on the 14th (24714/51081) and 48% on the 29th (26113/53826).
On the 14th october query 1338 level 60 characters had been inactive for 2 weeks, (45% of all level 60 players, 1338/2973),1075 had been inactive for 4 weeks (36% of all level 60 characters, 1075/2973) and 751 had been inactive for 8 weeks (25% of all level 60 characters, 751/2973).
On the 29th october query 1467 level 60 characters had been inactive for 2 weeks, (46% of all level 60 players, 1467/3188), 1239 had been inactive for 4 weeks (39% of all level 60 characters, 1239/3188) and 871 had been inactive for 8 weeks (27% of all level 60 characters, 871/3188).
Thus 73-75% of all level 60 characters have been active in the last 8 weeks.
Of all players that make it past level 9 (~27500), ~13000 (47%) make it to level 10-19, ~6000 (22%) make it to level 20-29, ~3100 (11%) make it to level 30-39, ~1800 (7%) make it to level 40-49, ~1080 (4%) make it to level 50-59 and ~3050 (11%) make it to level 60.
Analysis
During those 2 weeks 129 additional level 60 characters (1467-1338) didn't log during the census and 215 characters made it to level 60, resulting in an overall increase of 86 active level 60 characters (215-129). The active level 60 characters population thus seems increasing at a faster rate than it gets inactive.
While 25% of level 60 characters hadn't logged on during the last 8 weeks on the 14th, this number increased to 27% when the same query was made on the 29th. Thus more level 60 characters proportional to total level 60 characters seem to be getting inactive as time goes on. This difference may turn out to not be significant on a longer period of time.
Limitations
The census is not supported by Kronos, it sometimes fails to gather data about a faction for some hours. But there's no reason to believe it fails more on one faction or another, besides it has more data-points than most players using a census addon would have and on both factions.
I don't have data on other servers for comparison purposes, but I'd be most interested in it. This is mostly short-term data for the time being.
Discussion
Most characters that make it to level 60 stay active on the server (73-75%). This could mean that high-level characters are highly satisfied with the server, the possibilities in terms of activities, have stuff to do, can do stuff and have fun. It could also be explained by the risk of losing all progress made if going to a different server, of losing their communities and friends, by the time and ressources spent on their characters and by the perception of a lack of other good server options.
It is possible that players don't play less at level 60, but instead focus on different characters (alts), leading to lower active players. Maybe the last 25% represent players that finished the usual PvE content (MC, BWL, Onyxia) or met their personal goals (level 60, class-quest, etc). Activity could be lower than usual because of holidays or special days, but the mixed populations make this unlikely. It may be that 2-4 weeks is too short to notice a significant difference in level 60 players because leveling to 60 takes longer for most people.
89% of all characters higher than level 9 haven't made it to level 60. This means the average character is not level 60. Leveling to 60 remains a time-consuming process that most players do not achieve. Perhaps they encounter bugs, or didn't realise the time it would take to level, or levels 1-9 are unatractive, or other servers give them easier leveling options (ex : free 60), or they spend too long on a class they don't like before they get enough abilities to have fun. While level 60 characters are only a minority of the population (11%) they make up 23% of the active population in the last 7 days (1549/6691).
[16.11.2015] Added active population on the last 7 days for 3 consecutive weeks.
[22.11.2015] Added Raiders and barriers to PvP poll
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