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Warlock Feo's Corner of Reflexion: Hit or Crit?

Leido

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#1
Hello guys,

this is mainly focused for DS/Ruin build users, since I dont know much about affliction builds.

Now, this has been a topic that has been bothering me for long, questions popping on my head. If I get such good bonuses from crits like Ruin or Improved Shadow Bolt talents, why would I have to priorize hit>crit? (We all agree spell damage goes first, right?)

So I started trying up things, such as taking the Eye of the Beast instead of the Royal Seal of Eldre'Thalas. And I think it works. Yes, you rely more on the RNG, but thats not the main problem. The main problem is that you must keep your eyes set on the KTM at all moments, because 2 or 3 straight-critting shadowbolts might mean that you take the aggro and make your whole raid wipe.

But now, lets go into maths: Why do I think that Crit is so good?
Lets say that for each critical Shadow Bolt you deal 2600 damage, and you deal 1000 damage with each non-crit shadowbolt. That means you get +1600 damage off the critical hit, BUT you also get 20% extra on the next 4 shadowbolts because of the Improved Shadow Bolt talent! So your damage increase will be of 2400!

So thats when I realized: Having, lets say, 10% critical chance, and 4% hit chance means you're still going to need 13% hit chance to reach the cap. So, if we were to deal 100 shadowbolts, we would miss 13 of them, and then we would probably have 8-9 critical hits. This is only in theory tho, and depends much on the RNG. So we would then have 13 misses, 8-9x2600 shadowbolts, 32-36x1200 shadowbolts and 47-42x1000 shadowbolts.
That accounts for a total of 106200-108600 damage.
Instead, if we were to take a gear with less crit but like 7% hit and 6% crit, we would have only 10 misses out of 100 shadowbolts (I repeat, this is only in theory, RNG is a bitch sometimes and you can miss way more), but you would get only, lets say, 6 crits. that would mean we would have 10 misses, 6x2600 shadowbolts, 24x1200 shadowbolts and 60x1000 shadowbolts. That accounts for a total of 104400 damage.

So, going crit would actually give you more damage, specially when on later stages of the game you have more options between hit gear and crit gear.


That was just my opinion, and if someone could help me figure out how much spell damage does 1% crit account for on warlocks, or how much spell damage does 1% hit account for, I'd really appreciate.


Post is incomplete I think, still missing figures, and is not trying to convince anybody. Just trying to find out why everybody says that hit>crit, when I see that maths tell me otherwise.

Thanks for reading guys!


P.S.: Yes, I do know about aggro, and it is the biggest downside to it, but I think it can be bearable, specially if you have a shaman with the -15% aggro totem.
 

Smoker

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#2
chance to hit might also affect the shadow vulnerability hit chance after your shadowbolt criticals. gl factoring that into ur calculations x)
 

Lharts

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#3
But now, lets go into maths: Why do I think that Crit is so good?
Lets say that for each critical Shadow Bolt you deal 2600 damage, and you deal 1000 damage with each non-crit shadowbolt. That means you get +1600 damage off the critical hit, BUT you also get 20% extra on the next 4 shadowbolts because of the Improved Shadow Bolt talent! So your damage increase will be of 2400!
I dont get your math here.

1000 hit -> 2000 crit
20%
1200 hit -> 2400 crit

Hit also effectively increases your chance to crit.
lvl 63 -> 17% miss

Only 83% of your spells hit. And only X% of those spells crit, where X is your chance to crit.
Assume you have 20% chance to crit and cast a hundred times (to make is easier we leave out that 1% chance to miss)

100 casts
16 crits
67 hits

This means without any hit you do not crit with 20% of all spells, but only for 16.

For 50% crit chance ->

100 casts
41,5 crits
41,5 hits

Instead of 50% crit chance you only have 41,5 effectively.


Just a little mind game what hit actually does to you. Not to mention that this rule applies twice as the shadow vulnerability debuff from improves shadowbolt is under the same ruleset.
With enough hit you can make sure that your shadowbolt debuff actually lands on the target after a crit.
 

Smoker

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#4
I think thats incorrect Lharts, my understanding is this
When you cast a spell, the game does a /roll 1-100 to determine the outcome.

1-17 Resist
18-87 Hit
88-100 Crit

Having more Chance to Hit will reduce the "Resist" category, and add another point to the "Hit"
Having more Chance to Crit will reduce the "Hit" category, and add another point to the "Crit"
Therefore Chance to Hit will never cause a spell that would have been resisted, to instead be a Critical hit.
But the same thing applies to Chance to Crit, it will never cause a spell that would have been resisted to Crit instead.
 

Hagson

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#5
Lets say that for each critical Shadow Bolt you deal 2600 damage, and you deal 1000 damage with each non-crit shadowbolt.
Please do some basic research before attempting anything else. The critbonus is 100% (with talent), not 160%. A 1000dmg non-crit would have been a 2000dmg crit, and vice-versa.

So thats when I realized: Having, lets say, 10% critical chance, and 4% hit chance means you're still going to need 13% hit chance to reach the cap. So, if we were to deal 100 shadowbolts, we would miss 13 of them, and then we would probably have 8-9 critical hits. This is only in theory tho, and depends much on the RNG. So we would then have 13 misses, 8-9x2600 shadowbolts, 32-36x1200 shadowbolts and 47-42x1000 shadowbolts.
Spells work on a two-roll system. You have 83+%hit chance to hit, and %crit that your would-be hit will instead crit. There's not much point in commenting further since you're basing your conclusions on false assumptions.


chance to hit might also affect the shadow vulnerability hit chance after your shadowbolt criticals. gl factoring that into ur calculations x)
This is not true, a nonhit doesnt affect it at all, the math is quite simple.

Not to mention that this rule applies twice as the shadow vulnerability debuff from improves shadowbolt is under the same ruleset.
With enough hit you can make sure that your shadowbolt debuff actually lands on the target after a crit.
Are you saying that the debuff is under a separate hitroll? That your shadowbolt could crit, but the Improved Shadowbolt effect gets resisted? That doesn't make much sense at all, but I dont know how else to interpret what you're saying.

I think thats incorrect Lharts, my understanding is this
When you cast a spell, the game does a /roll 1-100 to determine the outcome.
This is true for melee swings, not for spellcasts.
 

Leido

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#6
I dont get your math here.

1000 hit -> 2000 crit
20%
1200 hit -> 2400 crit

Hit also effectively increases your chance to crit.
lvl 63 -> 17% miss

Only 83% of your spells hit. And only X% of those spells crit, where X is your chance to crit.
Assume you have 20% chance to crit and cast a hundred times (to make is easier we leave out that 1% chance to miss)

100 casts
16 crits
67 hits

This means without any hit you do not crit with 20% of all spells, but only for 16.

For 50% crit chance ->

100 casts
41,5 crits
41,5 hits

Instead of 50% crit chance you only have 41,5 effectively.
Not sure I understood everything, Lharts; how did you do the maths for

100 casts
16 crits
67 hits
Also Ayz, I think you can only crit after you've landed a spell, so it would be: If you have 1% hit and 1% crit, you have 1/100 chance to hit (thanks to the hit on your gear only), and after that 1/100 chances to crit. So, ((1/100)/100) = 0.0001% critical hit awarded by %hit chance in your gear. Of course, this is increased as you get more hit, and there is only 17% chance to miss on bosses, but still, im just trying to clear out how not dps-effective hit is.

And finally Hagson,
Please do some basic research before attempting anything else. The critbonus is 100% (with talent), not 160%. A 1000dmg non-crit would have been a 2000dmg crit, and vice-versa.
What I understand is that a normal crit increases your damage by 100% spell damage, and then Ruin increases it another 100%.


Dunno guys, as stated on the OP im no pro, (and no mathematician either lol), so im probably wrong on something, but I just dont get on what, so I'm still going crit.
 

Lharts

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#7
A regular spell crit is 150%. Ruin increases the BONUS by 100%. The bonus for crits is 50%. Increasing the BONUS by 100% makes its 50% + 50% -> 100% BONUS. Thus 200% damage on a crit.
You don't even need to do math here, just get ingame and check it.

Spell casts, same as melee, is a double dice roll. Only a hit can be a crit.

@Hagson, yes debufs that are NOT inbuilt to a spell can be resisted seperately. You can get hit by Counterspell and still resist the Silence. Secondary effects as the slow from Frostbolt do not work this way.
Procs are handled as seperate abilities. If the proc has a spell school is can therefore be resisted.

http://forums.elitistjerks.com/topic/8487-spell-vulnerability-resist-mechanics/
Here they discuss improved Scorch. It doesn't matter which spell it is though.
 

Hagson

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#8
That's very interesting, I had never heard about that mechanic.

I'm making a macro that calculates the relative value of hit/crit/spellpower, but I would need to change some stuff considering this.
 

Leido

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#9
That's very interesting, I had never heard about that mechanic.

I'm making a macro that calculates the relative value of hit/crit/spellpower, but I would need to change some stuff considering this.

By value you mean how much spell damage does hit and crit account for?
 

Lharts

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#11
TheoryCraft addon is already doing that. Very accurate also.
Theres some stuff it doesn't factor in, like procs, for example shadow vulnerability and its uptime :-(
 

Lharts

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#13
http://forums.elitistjerks.com/topic/9411-spell-hit-spell-crit-and-mages/page-2#entry264752

Someone in this thread even tested it. In his scenario with a 1 dice system every spell you land would be a crit. This was not the case -> 2 dice system.

If it was a 1 dice system not only would crit make your spells deal more damage, but it would additionally have the same effect as hit does.

What source is the other theory, that Chance to Hit also affects the chance of a crit, based on?
Math. On a 2 dice roll, only a spell that actually landed can be converted to a crit. This means only a subset of hits will be a crit.
If you have 20% chance to crit, but only 80% of your spells actually land, then only 20% of those 80% can be a critical.
0.8 * 0.2 = 16% of all spells you have casted.

Table would look like this then:
16% crit
64% hit
20% miss

Adding 10% hit:
18% crit
72% hit
10% miss

Hitcapped:
19,8 crit
79,2 hit
1% miss
 

Hagson

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#14
TheoryCraft addon is already doing that. Very accurate also.
Theres some stuff it doesn't factor in, like procs, for example shadow vulnerability and its uptime :-(
Not taking Shadow Vulnerability into account greatly reduces the percieved value of crit, I wouldn't trust those numbers at all.
 

Leido

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#15
So, taking into account what you guys just said, my calculations are wrong? (No surprise tho).
Hagson, how are you doing that macro to find out how much spell power do %hit and %crit account for? And, just personal, dont you guys feel your damage imput is greater while wearing more crit than hit? Like, every time I look on the Warlock guide on this forum and I read that the post says you must end up with 11% hit and 1% crit, something dies inside me. Yes, hit is very important, but the question is - is it really worth going for hit after like 5-6% hit, or is it good to swap for crit and try to get as much as possible? (Only as ds/ruin ofc).

Just tell me what you feel about it guys! Of course, needs to be proven with maths, but still, I just see such a dps increase while wearing crit. I think im the only warlock on my guild priorizing crit > hit after 4-5% hit (couldn't get more just yet), and I'm always top lock. I know its no argument for this, but still. It might be that what is confusing me, but I really feel that way.

Thanks for all the time you guys are putting on the thread tho! :wub:
 

Lharts

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#16
Yes, going for hit after 5-6% is definitely worth it. 1% hit increases your damage by more then 1%. Leaving out procs for simplicity.

0% hit and crit vs boss:
83 hit
0 crit
17 miss
-> 83% damage

Adding 1% hit:
84 hit
0 crit
16 miss
-> 84% damage
-> 100/83*84 = 101,2% -> damage increased by 1,2%

Adding a crit:
83 hit
0,83 crit (only 1% of 83 hits are crits)
17 miss
-> 83,83%
-> 100/83*83,83 = 101% -> damage increased by 1%

Going from 15 to 16% hit:
-> 100/98 * 99 = 101,02%

The closer you get to hitcap, the closer crit gets to hit in terms of damage increase. As in the thread Ayz posted, hits value floor is 1%, while crits value CIELING is 0.99% (due to 1% miss that you can't avoid).
This means with hitcap 1% crit is 0.99% crit effectively while hit is 1% right from the get go.

However there are talents that benefit from critical strikes such as Shadow Vulnerability or Ignite (effectively >210% on a crit). Taking this into account crit evens out somewhat arround 11%, if you believe the guides.
I didn't do the math myself, but is sounds realistic to me.
Usually I ran with 7-8 hit and kept my spellpower as high as possible. Only ever took crit if I didn't have to sacrifice any other stat for it or if the item with crit was just too insanely good, like Mishundare or Volatile Power (redundant with Bloodvine though...).

With Onyxia buff even a lock with 0% additional crit sits at arround 20%, this is usually enough for a pretty consistent Shadow Vulnerability uptime.
 

Leido

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#17
Are you taking into account, Lharts, that if a raid has 3-4 locks and they go crit>hit, the damage of crits is gonna be higher, so the raids overall dps is gonna increase, no?
Same with nightfall, crits beneift more of the 15% than normal hits.

And also, as a parallel quesion: how much dps increase is -10 resists on target?

EDIT: Want to add that, obviously, the more time the Shadow Bolt debuff is up, the more damage all the locks will do.
 
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Hagson

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#18
People often ask me how much hit they should get, what stat they should go for, and other similar questions.

I always answer the same thing, there's no particular number. You can't say "get 11% hit, then get this and and that", because you don't know what you're sacraficing to get that hit. Everything is a comparison, and everything can be calculated. This is not rocket science, there is a right answer, and it's not that hard to come to.

So the answer is No, it's not worth "going for crit after like 5-6% hit", nor is it good to "swap hit for crit as much as possible". You always compare the two potential set's of gear, check how much of each stat the sets have, and then compare what that gives you.

I don't care if you "feel" like having lots of crit is good. I could feel like smacking the boss with my staff is great, but that doesn't make it any less stupid.


@Leido
Crit's don't benefit more from nightfall (the axe). Nigthfall last's a set amount of time and has no charges. Everything gains 15%
-10 res is usually no dps gain since bosses have 0SR after CoS
Imp. Shadowbolt has charges, the effects of having more warlocks in a raid cancels itself out (assuming all warlocks have the same crit).
 
Last edited:

Lharts

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#19
Hagsons reply is spot on.

From some research bosses do have resistances. Some that can't even be mitigated. Usually CoE and CoS will reduce the resistance down to the point where only the unmitigatable part remains. This makes -resistance in PvE almost useless.
In PvP on the other hand its one of the strongest stats for a warlock. Almost all Tier sets have shadow resistance on. Not to mention buffs.

-20 resistance = 5% more damage or higher chance that your fear (binary) lands.
AV ring + WSG trinket = win in PvP
 

Leido

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#20
Dont all bosses have 145 resists to everything but nature tho?
And thanks Hagson, I'll just change gear whenever I feel there is an improvement.
 

Hagson

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#24
if u run a macro ingame to see the monster resistances, very few of them have more than 0.
This. There's no real research to do other than target the mob and click the macro. I checked all bosses in MC and BWL and none have more than 75 SR or FrR.

Here's a version of the macro that posts the result in /say
/script u=UnitResistance y="target" a=u(y ,0) h=u(y ,1) f=u(y ,2) n=u(y ,3) fr=u(y ,4) s=u(y ,5) z=u(y ,6) SendChatMessage(UnitName(y).." has "..a.." Armor, "..h.." HR, "..f.." FR, "..n.." NR, "..fr.." FrR, "..s.." SR and "..z.." AR.", SAY)
 
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