Mage Hit chance vs spell power

[festivatas]

Everyone says get 10% hit for raids, but how much spellpower should I sacrifice.

1 % hit is around 900 more dmg per 100 shots + a little extra for higher crit. chance

I change gear to get the +1 % hit chance, but I loose 15 spellpower, I got 90 % chance to hit.

15 x 90 = 1350 dmg......so to me it seems logical that spellpower in this case is best ? or am I

missing something ?!

 

[Smoker]

You're already hit capped on trash, so spellpower will make you deal more damage vs everything, where as hit will only make you do more dmg against bosses. So yeah don't go overboard on Hit

If u wanna look at numbers try the link in my sig

 

[Chainsaw]

Theoretical at a certain point spell damage > hit, for example 20 spell damage > 1% hit. BUT theory and reality are a bit different. If you cast 100 000 spells, the 20spell will be much better. But if you cast like 20 to 40 frost bolts, the impact of one missed spell is bigger than 40 spells with 20 spell damage less. Also you have a mathematical variance which means that you can theoretically hit 50 spells without being hitcapped OR miss 10 out of 50 spells being hitcapped. Since you don't cast 100 000 spells in a row, I'd just go for hit and not spell damage. For trahs mobs: what smoker said.

 

[Lenni]

10% hit from grear will not grant you 100% chance to hit. In vanilla there is always 1% chance to miss

 

[Chainsaw]

You will need 8% from gear, 2% from zg enchants and another 6% from talents to reach the cap.

 

[Lenni]

ye. but even with 16% cap there will be a 1% chance to miss

 

[Sheepler]

I think this is what you are looking for
Copy pasted from my Nostalrius post:

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How to calculate your CRIT value:

Your frost bolt does 456 avg dmg. (not the 446 its supposed to be, don't know why)
A solid preraid set of gear gives you spellpower of 400. 2 crit.
Full Raid consumes of +86 spellpower. (36 from Brilliant Wizard Oil and 35 Greater Arcane Elixir and 15 Elixir of Frost Power)
Frostbolt's spellpower coefficient is .814 (3/3.5 = .857 then .857*.95 = .814)
3/3.5 = cast time
95% -> 5% reduction is because it has a slowing effect.

456 + (.814 coefficient * 486) = 852 dmg per frostbolt.
1% crit would over a long average be equal to 1% more damage per frost bolt. 852*.01 = 8.52 dmg.
8.52 / (spell coefficent = .814) = 10.46 Spellpower.
Then we divide it by current crit chance to account for diminishing returns **
10.46 / (1+ [crit chance = .02]) = 10.26 Spellpower.

At this gear level 10.26 spellpower would be equal to 1% crit, and that would be the ratio you tradeoff your items for max theoretical DPS.

Now lets say you have better gear at a level of 450 Spellpower. +86 from Raid consumables.
1% crit = 10.96 SP

TLDR: Crit-value = FBDMG/ 100 / .814 / (1 + crit chance)

** Each additional crit has diminishing returns. All of your crit affects your spellpower, so when you add +1% crit, you aren't comparing it to your frostbolt base dmg, but to (frosbolt dmg * current crit chance). So when going from 0-1% crit you do (frostbolt dmg * 1.00). However when going from 99%->100% crit you're comparing it to (frostbolt dmg * 1.99).
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How to value HIT:
You can't go above 16% hit (you get 6% from talents). Base hit chance is 83%. 1% miss is unremovable.

Interestingly, spells are a 2 table roll. First the server rolls to see if you hit, then if you successfully landed your spell; it checks if you made a crit. When calculating hit value, an additional hit can crit and we take that into consideration. Like crit, additional hit makes your spell-power more effective and increasing hit has diminishing returns (due to spell-power becoming worth more).
Crit is not used during hit calculations because it affects the hit and spell-power evenly.

Gear: 400 SP +86 (from consumables) = 486. 0 hit.
852 dmg per frostbolt.
Dmg per frostbolt / Spell coefficient / (.83 + current-hit + .01)
[8.52/.814 = 10.46 dmg] / (.83) = 12.6 sp

At this gear level 12.6 spellpower would be equal to 1% hit, and that would be the ratio you tradeoff your items for max theoretical DPS.

Lets say you have 2% hit?
[8.52/.814 = 10.46 dmg] / (.85) = 12.31 sp

TLDR: Hit-value = FBDmg/ 100 / .814 / (hit chance)
Hit is also diminishing returns as explained above!

The more spellpower you have, the more each crit and hit is worth.
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So you make tradeoffs on your items until you find your max DPS combination when choosing your items.

Good luck!
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You can check your gear values if feeling lazy (Save it to drive) + can also verify my math here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HjDEIyzXBwmH9MQRgQErTuwfJ0plmpy-ZVESJ-75HIY

Also Hagson made a handy in-game addon for this as well: https://forum.twinstar.cz/showthread.php/101961-RELEASE-StatValues-(for-Warlocks-and-Mages)

 

[Chainsaw]

For frost 1 hit is always worth more than 1 crit, because the damage bonus gained from crits scales with hit chance. So before you stuff yourself with crit, go for hitcap.