Kronos population census & numbers

I've been pondering about the Kronos population for a long time. It is important to have enough players to sustain regular in-game activities and players regularly talk about it and discuss ways to increase the population. Few would like to join a server where the population is getting lower and lower. If such was the case, some action would be required to happen to prevent the decay from continuing. And if the population is growing it is interesting to look at why this happens and how to stimulate it further.

I decided to gather some data from the Kronos Census http://www.kronos-census.com/ to find out more about it and have an opinion based on numbers, not only feelings that there are more or less players online. The data could help pinpoint areas where help could be needed (ex : if we notice most players don't make it past level 10 we could question if helping them at this very point would make them stay).

An active character is defined as a character that logged on during a census in the last 8 weeks.

Reminder : The census is NOT affiliated with Kronos. Nevertheless it's the best data I can have.
Reminder 2 : It's not because there's a difference that it is significant, some natural variability always occurs.

Results

[Google doc : All documents]
[Google doc : Amount of characters per level over time]
[Google doc : Amount of characters online in the last 7 days over time]
[Google doc : Random sample of level 60 players online in the last 7 days that have raided]
[Google doc : Poll about raiders and PvP, barriers to doing PvP] * [Presentation of results]



From the 14^th october to the 29^th october 2015 (roughly 2 weeks difference) 2475 new characters (53826-51081) where made. 1399 (57%, 24714-26113) didn't make it past level 9. An additional 215 (3188-2973) characters made it to level 60. Around 48% of the population was level 1-9 on the 14^th (24714/51081) and 48% on the 29^th (26113/53826).

On the 14^th october query 1338 level 60 characters had been inactive for 2 weeks, (45% of all level 60 players, 1338/2973),1075 had been inactive for 4 weeks (36% of all level 60 characters, 1075/2973) and 751 had been inactive for 8 weeks (25% of all level 60 characters, 751/2973).

On the 29^th october query 1467 level 60 characters had been inactive for 2 weeks, (46% of all level 60 players, 1467/3188), 1239 had been inactive for 4 weeks (39% of all level 60 characters, 1239/3188) and 871 had been inactive for 8 weeks (27% of all level 60 characters, 871/3188).

Thus 73-75% of all level 60 characters have been active in the last 8 weeks.

Of all players that make it past level 9 (~27500), ~13000 (47%) make it to level 10-19, ~6000 (22%) make it to level 20-29, ~3100 (11%) make it to level 30-39, ~1800 (7%) make it to level 40-49, ~1080 (4%) make it to level 50-59 and ~3050 (11%) make it to level 60.

Analysis

During those 2 weeks 129 additional level 60 characters (1467-1338) didn't log during the census and 215 characters made it to level 60, resulting in an overall increase of 86 active level 60 characters (215-129). The active level 60 characters population thus seems increasing at a faster rate than it gets inactive.

While 25% of level 60 characters hadn't logged on during the last 8 weeks on the 14^th, this number increased to 27% when the same query was made on the 29^th. Thus more level 60 characters proportional to total level 60 characters seem to be getting inactive as time goes on. This difference may turn out to not be significant on a longer period of time.

Limitations

The census is not supported by Kronos, it sometimes fails to gather data about a faction for some hours. But there's no reason to believe it fails more on one faction or another, besides it has more data-points than most players using a census addon would have and on both factions.

I don't have data on other servers for comparison purposes, but I'd be most interested in it. This is mostly short-term data for the time being.

Discussion

Most characters that make it to level 60 stay active on the server (73-75%). This could mean that high-level characters are highly satisfied with the server, the possibilities in terms of activities, have stuff to do, can do stuff and have fun. It could also be explained by the risk of losing all progress made if going to a different server, of losing their communities and friends, by the time and ressources spent on their characters and by the perception of a lack of other good server options.

It is possible that players don't play less at level 60, but instead focus on different characters (alts), leading to lower active players. Maybe the last 25% represent players that finished the usual PvE content (MC, BWL, Onyxia) or met their personal goals (level 60, class-quest, etc). Activity could be lower than usual because of holidays or special days, but the mixed populations make this unlikely. It may be that 2-4 weeks is too short to notice a significant difference in level 60 players because leveling to 60 takes longer for most people.

89% of all characters higher than level 9 haven't made it to level 60. This means the average character is not level 60. Leveling to 60 remains a time-consuming process that most players do not achieve. Perhaps they encounter bugs, or didn't realise the time it would take to level, or levels 1-9 are unatractive, or other servers give them easier leveling options (ex : free 60), or they spend too long on a class they don't like before they get enough abilities to have fun. While level 60 characters are only a minority of the population (11%) they make up 23% of the active population in the last 7 days (1549/6691).

[16.11.2015] Added active population on the last 7 days for 3 consecutive weeks.
[22.11.2015] Added Raiders and barriers to PvP poll

Great work, but some flaws:

1) The level one chars don't say a lot - I alone created 3 of them as storage toons.

2) Characters getting to 60 don't necessarily mean an increase in the active population, because, and again I was one of them, many will have been alts.

I would consider it impossible to clean up the data for those effects so really you won't be able to tell much by looking at the data.
A much easier and quicker way to see how the overall active population develops would be to look at the census for the main raiding days, where there will be very few alts online (as most are on their mains raiding) plus people that don't raid.

1) The level one chars don't say a lot - I alone created 3 of them as storage toons.

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Then you say it yourself, level 1 chars can mean players make storage toons. If players don't play the game they don't make storage toons because they don't need them. I don't see them as a flaw, only data points that can be used, interpretated or discarded. They can easily be removed from calculations if needed.

2) Characters getting to 60 don't necessarily mean an increase in the active population, because, and again I was one of them, many will have been alts.

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Indeed, and I've already mentioned that possibility in my post. But surely not all of them are alts. I suspect it's a minority because of the energy required to level a second one, and I could absolutely be wrong. It could be estimated by asking a sample of level 60 players.

A much easier and quicker way to see how the overall active population develops would be to look at the census for the main raiding days, where there will be very few alts online (as most are on their mains raiding) plus people that don't raid.

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We may see less alts but for that estimation to be correct it assumes that the overall population raids. Do they? If we look at the active players in the last 7 days without the level 1-5 and level 60, that's 3944 characters, it's 2.5x the number of level 60 that logged on (1549) and all of those didn't raid. Maybe we can know from raidlogs/bosskills/armory how many players raid but I didn't find that function. And there's all the characters that just do not play at raid hours/raid days which can't be seen using this way.

But yeah, it's a different way to see it.

Sometimes i log 10 accounts with all lvl 1 characters and i let them run into walls with autorun at starting location to trick new players =D hope it helps #kronos#fighting

Xhxh said:

Sometimes i log 10 accounts with all lvl 1 characters and i let them run into walls with autorun at starting location to trick new players =D hope it helps #kronos#fighting

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Ooor, seeing level 1's running into walls would just put a bade taste in their mouth. One might immediately think its a bugged/laggy server. Just sayin'

My bad i didn't specify everything = not all of them are running into walls some of them are sitting/dancing etc.
Some of them are standing near the quest givers (people usually try to communicate with them)
I love Kronos and i am just trying to help

We may see less alts but for that estimation to be correct it assumes that the overall population raids. Do they?

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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...YjK0vERkU3wjMisrfmtY5LdH6I/edit#gid=483520931

Out of 100 random level 60 characters that logged in the last 7 days, 88 (88%) have raided at some point in time. That would represent about 1331 (88% of 1512) of the 1512 level 60 characters that logged in those 7 days. Assuming it is representative of the overall level 60 population then most level 60 players do raid, or at least try raids at some point (if you wanted to argue that focusing GM's work on raids is important, that's a good point, it's also a selling point of the server and another reason to show videos of raids if they are so important). So I'm guessing raiders tend to stay active... but is that also the case for PvP players with the current silithyst & premade BG issues?

[17/11/2015] Updated numbers.

Outcomes from the period 24/10/2015 - 13/11/2015 :

Slightly more active level 40-60 characters (online in last 7 days). Roughly +15-30 / week.

Unstable number of active level 20-40 characters. -50 then +50 / week.

Overall increase of total characters (1-60). Roughly 1000-1500 / week.

Increase of total level 40-60 characters. Roughly 120-180 / week.

Increase of total level 20-40 characters. Roughly 200 / week.

Its rly bad with that low pop, idk why we dont have more players, Kronos is much better scripted then any other server..
Unfortunately, Kronos is dead, i can only AFK ingame... I'm done, I'm going to try competing server.
TY for all, bye.

17.11: 2PM-6PM servertime for example not a single BG that did not close due to less players, thats pretty sad

BGs closing due to not having enough players has little to do with population on Kronos. It has to do with people dropping queue and AFKing out of games. There are more than enough people to have a healthy PVP scene, the problem is that queuing into premades and getting into empty games from dodging turns the majority of people off.

6PM-12PM not a single BG that wasn't a fair game.

Logging in during a time span of two weeks has little to do with activity. I am an active character by your definitions but only contribute to my own guild by raiding, do no content with randoms, never herb/farm and post nothing on the AH. For anyone but my own guild, my presence isn't noticeable on the server.

Unfortunately we can't track hours spent ingame or unique IP's that logged in. My feeling is that on any given evening only a handful people are running normal dungeons with pugs or queuing BG's, and god knows if it's possible to get groups in the lower level brackets.

Staff seriously need to consider boosting XP for fixed or constant amounts of time.

Rolexsweep said:

Logging in during a time span of two weeks has little to do with activity. I am an active character by your definitions but only contribute to my own guild by raiding, do no content with randoms, never herb/farm and post nothing on the AH. For anyone but my own guild, my presence isn't noticeable on the server.

Unfortunately we can't track hours spent ingame or unique IP's that logged in. My feeling is that on any given evening only a handful people are running normal dungeons with pugs or queuing BG's, and god knows if it's possible to get groups in the lower level brackets.

Staff seriously need to consider boosting XP for fixed or constant amounts of time.

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Cant agree more. Too bad I dont know how to +1 posts

Rolexsweep said:

Staff seriously need to consider boosting XP for fixed or constant amounts of time.

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We'd probably lose more people than we'd gain, or turn Kronos into Feenix Warsong population and economy wise. Pretty much like flushing the whole blizzlike thing. Immense no-go to me.

Leido said:

Cant agree more. Too bad I dont know how to +1 posts

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hi (and sorry for OT),

i think you need min. 10 posts here on forum, then you will be able to use "cool" buttons

i dont know if you need status "authorized user" too - its about connecting your game account with forum account via account manager here: https://www.twinstar.cz/manager/Login.aspx

server definetly needs more Players. I dont check Census but it feels empty and u cant deny that. Last couple of evenings when i checked there were around 300-400 ppl online on horde.... Maybe ZG will give a bosst but maybe it wont so do something!

All raidloggers should start PvPing imo

All raidloggers should start PvPing imo

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Considering the population spikes on week-end nights and at night there seems to be a lot of raiders. If all raiders did PvP then the PvP situation would be much better, sure.

Thus the question becomes : Are raidloggers and raiders interested in PvP, or have they ever been on this server? If yes, what makes/made them not do it? Then we could maybe work on those barriers (ex: if premades are the most salient problem -> join BG as a 10 man raid on both sides excluding Rank 10+). Assuming we want some moderator intervention being able to say "80% of the 55 Horde raiders asked said they didn't PvP because of premades" is a strong argument.

Anyone up to ask some kind of sample about that? Like all raiders from 2-4 guilds? With open-ended questions to not bias the answers?

tekai said:

Thus the question becomes : Are raidloggers and raiders interested in PvP, or have they ever been on this server? If yes, what makes/made them not do it?

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1) You see empty battlegrounds, we (raiders) see empty consumable banks. There is only so much time we can spend playing this game.

2) PvP always makes me mad in the end. And I like my calm. I'm old now.

Rolexsweep said:

Staff seriously need to consider boosting XP for fixed or constant amounts of time.

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If you do that I'll scream.

Lharts said:

All raidloggers should start PvPing imo

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Most raiders do PvP for gear. That means once they hit the rank they wanted they most likely will not do any other BG in the future. Like myself, I played hardcore PvP for months till I got what I wanted, now I'm just a raid logger.

You can't expect the same players to keep doing the same things for long periods of time, especially if you consider that many Kronos players already spent ALOT of time playing vanilla WoW on other servers.

I appreciate your participation, bl4ckc0d3r. Preferably if others also want to give their point of view I suggest aggregating them in an open document like a google doc file, to avoid having 20+ comments and making the topic too long. Or hiding them in <spoilers> while contributing to the main topic : population.

Off-topic
I have started gathering data on the Horde side about raiders that would maybe do some PvP. Players should be getting some in-game mails from me. Currently 8/102 answers.

lanevegame said:

If you do that I'll scream.



Most raiders do PvP for gear. That means once they hit the rank they wanted they most likely will not do any other BG in the future. Like myself, I played hardcore PvP for months till I got what I wanted, now I'm just a raid logger.

You can't expect the same players to keep doing the same things for long periods of time, especially if you consider that many Kronos players already spent ALOT of time playing vanilla WoW on other servers.

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It used to be that people raided so they could get gear to pwn other people in PvP with.

I for one like to PvP just for fun, few BGs per day/week. But when I log for BG, i don't want to wait for 15+ minutes. I have limited time (like an hour or two), and there are other things I can do than waiting for BG pop. Even though I can leave the city, when BG pops, I get back to the city and that makes any kind of potential farm in meantime uneffective.

So I rather don't queuee for BG and rather go farm herbs/whatever while I join some pug for dung, because I can do whateever I want while group assembles.

Another thing is, that when BGs are running, there is an threat, that you will not get to next one and you have to wait for 5-x minutes.

That is why I don't queuee for BGs (mostly)

Aieris said:

I for one like to PvP just for fun, few BGs per day/week. But when I log for BG, i don't want to wait for 15+ minutes. I have limited time (like an hour or two), and there are other things I can do than waiting for BG pop. Even though I can leave the city, when BG pops, I get back to the city and that makes any kind of potential farm in meantime uneffective.

So I rather don't queuee for BG and rather go farm herbs/whatever while I join some pug for dung, because I can do whateever I want while group assembles.

Another thing is, that when BGs are running, there is an threat, that you will not get to next one and you have to wait for 5-x minutes.

That is why I don't queuee for BGs (mostly)

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Youre alliance, the majority of my alliance queues are instant.