I believe you are spot on here tbh, sadly I should add!
There is no way we are going to get 3k this weekend. Launch is always attracting the most amount of people who likes to test the waters so to speak, but then they move on (or go back to the previous server). There is no doubt many people leave after the initial hype goes away. We are steady at around 1,5k and lets say 2k during better hours. If the server keeps improving and gets more stable, then we might see a slight increase in the future. But overall I think we will have a steady balance between incoming new players and outgoing players moving on in the future, which is what I hope for. The worst thing would be if people just kept leaving because server keeps crashing or they just cba to level anymore or whatever reason, and no new players join in because we dont advertise well enough. New people need to know why they should pick Kronos above that other server, because we have better scripts and quality.
Before release, in the midst of the hype people got to know about Kronos because we were all over the internetz advertising the server, and now its out there. Everyone who heard about it and got on the hypetrain already did join when it launched (which is why we had 15k log in attempts on release). After the initial storm people leave, then it all stabilizes, then that's it. So, slow and slight increase or slow and painfull decrease is the question..